This Time Next Year: News from June 2009

A few predictions for our not so distant future.
Send us yours. 

1. Sales growth of combi (all in one) washer/dryers and compact washers and dryers.
2. Death of the Side by Side refrigerator reported.....and not a moment too soon.
3. Luxury brands launch down market "aspirational" and "builder" product lines to leverage brand equity and protect annual revenues.
4. A new day for (2) step distributors as economic priced smaller import brands gain a foothold.
5. Average gasoline prices temporarily rest at the $4+ per gallon level unless Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities and air force assets...then gas hits $8.
6. The premise of appliance sales over the internet teeters upon the cost of national shipping.
7. Luxury brands follow GE Monogram and Fisher Paykel / DCS to Mexico.
8. Pro-style dies...finally.  Death certificate indicates cost of stainless, smaller homes, a failure to perform, and inane ergonomics.  Pro-style is a joke manufacturers have pulled on consumers who think they can cook.  Euro-style grows to take up the slack.
9. Explosive growth of projects for development of urban-ring condo towers convenient to mass transit.  
10. Un-gentrified urban wastelands rediscovered.  Displaced poor and working class continue shift outside outer ring, secondary urban areas and hopelessly set adrift in suburbs.
11. Kitchen remodels drop.  Appliance sales trend away from discretionary upgrades to failure related urgent replacement.
12. Dealer and distributor inventories grow to improve service levels.
13. Mom and Pop dealers finally catch a wind. (this is good)
14. Birth rate drops slightly...except in Gloucester.  Future Gloucester appliance sales expected to be sterno-related.
15. Home ownership drops (confirmed by NYT).  Rental rate stays level or drops.  How?  Single occupancy rentals drop and "Boomerang Generation", (grown children moving back with parents), includes growing number of grown married children with children of their own.
16. Pure electric non-hybrid vehicles become the de rigueur 2nd vehicle inside the urban ring.  First thousands arriving from China are 3-wheeled enclosed vehicles registered as motorcycles.
17. Electric space heating gains.  Wood pellet industry gains strongly.
18. National average electric rates rise to 15¢ KWH even before carbon tax, with 20¢ and 25¢ impatiently waiting in the wings.  
          Note:  Assume in 10 years that actual appliance electricity usage cost to be at least 3 times higher than the DOE Yellow Card estimate.
19. Green marketing of polluting brands and products explodes with mixed results.  Marketers wrestle with the problem of trying to educate and sensitize the consumer but not so much that they understand the issue. (coal, hybrid SUVs, BP, and some of our favorite appliance brands).
20. GE appliances languishes unsold like a Florida condo.  Its perceived value falling faster than GE can adjust its selling price.
21. UPDATE:  Two needs mutually satisfied?  Florida's empty homes and condos are rented on 6 month leases to northern retirees fleeing winter heating costs
22. UPDATE:  Northern plumbers tied up October through December winterizing homes of newly minted snow birds.
23. UPDATE:  Miami Dealer.  Miami's general contractors & roofers are backlogged 6+ months since 2008's Cat 5 hurricane "Fiona" destroyed or damaged 80% of the homes. With power grids finally back on-line, construction is full swing.  Californians fleeing sky-high taxes and inflated property cost, and unimpressed by Florida's insurance costs, are shopping for bargains among Miami's abandoned properties.
24. House fires are all the rage thanks to kerosene and electric space heaters.
25. UPDATE July 11:  The city of Palmdale, CA a city founded on cheap housing, cheap gas, and long commutes, a god awful distance from Los Angeles is discovered to be uninhabited by three girl scouts selling cookies.

Plan accordingly