Almo Appliances

"The First Thing We Do, Let's Kill All the Economists Part II"

The best extended summary of how economists drove us off the cliff, and an indictment of laissez-faire economic policies.
NY Times:  September 2, 2009:  How Did Economists Get it So Wrong?

To see our original story March 2009:  http://applianceadvisor.com/content/first-thing-we-do-lets-kill-all-economists0073

Solution-Last Post for Sure

I am certain you and Karl Marx have all the answers.

Not Impressive

I’m guessing that your reference to Karl Marx is a subtle a way of saying that we at ApplianceAdvisor.com are communists. 
Considering the extensive experience you claim, and the spectrum of subjects you see fit to comment on, I had hoped that your ability to differentiate economic theories would be a little bit more impressive.
The news article linked to the New York Times above is a defense of Keynesian Economics which had fallen out of favor until the recent crash. Keynesian Economics suggests a more robust public response to economic trends, for sure, but to suggest it is communist is a little bit daffy.

Let us come out of the closet, to stand tall, and state proudly; “We are Keynesians. We do not believe that the market is altogether rational nor always efficient; we do not believe that all market information is in the stock price, we do believe that the market includes significant emotional components such as fear, dread, hope, fantasy, peer pressure and herd mentality.”
Now if I can only figure out how to tell my parents.

The herd has stopped moving. Keynesians believe that government incentives that promote the sale of big ticket appliances to your friends and neighbors will, by their purchase, help make you more secure, getting you off your duff to buy more stuff too.  And the entire herd moves forward.

Nothing causes more pain like old fashioned Keynesian Economics

I finally read this article. What Krugman and many analysts fail to address is why in the world would banks and mortgage companies make these risky loans? They oft repeated statement is "greed"? This makes absolutly no sense whatever. Why would these companies take such a risk in the name of "greed". Going out of business is never a good strategy. Enter the "robust public response". When it defies logic, there is usually an outside force at work. When it really causes pain and suffering and really defies logic it's probably the government. So here is what really happened (not comprehensive as this is a blog post, but you'll get the idea):

  • In 1977 The "Community Reinvesment Act" (CRA) becomes law. CRA initially for many years was a non factor. Interest rates were so high that this dandy piece of legislation had little or no impact and it evolved over the years. The legislation was based on the premise that Home Ownership is a good thing and basically lowered mortgage standards. It was not until the early nineties that regulators started to hold banks accountable to this legislation in serious ways thanks to George H.W. Bush and the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act. Interest rates were still high enough that this did not create huge problems.....yet. In 1994 The Reigle Neil Interstate Banking Branching Efficiency Act opened the door for interstate banking. CRA ratings are one of the criteria used as to allow mergers and acquisitions. The Fed refused to allow a Hartford, CT bank to acquire a New Hampsire Bank based on this critera. This certainly sent a signal that CRA compliance was serious business.
  • As the years went by, The Fed kept reducing rates. Refinanacing became more attractive, consumers traded high interest credit for low interest home loans. Speculators also became aware that with the lax leanding standards created by CRA, they could buy bigger homes with low or no money down.  It should be noted that the CRA did not specifically require lower down payments, but it was understood by the banks as to exactly what type of loans would increase their compliance and approval of regulators. If a bank wanted to grow or remain favorable with their governors, they had to make these loans.
  • In 1998 Fed Governor Laurance H. Meyer, the banks primary regulator, at a conference praised financial institutions making 100% loan to value loans specifically targeted to low and moderate income earners.
  • November of 2000 HUD Secretery Andrew Cuomo announces Fannie and Freddy are committed to purchasing $2 trillion in "affordable housing" mortgages (refresh my memory, doesn't the govenment have something to do with Fannie & Freddy?). This greatly increased the willingnes of financial institutions to make these loans.
  • In 2005 under Bush, new rules loosened CRA supervision of banks with under $1billion in assets and increased CRA supervision of banks with over $1billion in assets. Larger banks were allowed to voluntarily reduce regulator scrutiny on investment and services. This put MORE emphasis on making these toxic CRA loans. With interest rates near zero at this time, demand skyrockets, housing values skyrocket. Home ownership increases from 64% to 69%. Politicians are sooooo happy.

We all know what happend next. Politicians are still happy since the majority of people will believe their lies that this is what happens when markets are unregulated. In reality our activist government has had their slimy hands in this one from the start. The same people who caused the pain and problems will grab more power. In an effort to "fix" the problems they will certainly create more (they already are). If this is a "robust public response" I have some places that you can stick your Keynesian Economics.

Keynesian II

Decisions were made too complex for any human (or maybe it's just me) to understand, such as Derivatives and Mortgage Backed Securities.  They certainly remain so for me. 
Greed was not part of the problem?  Greed is always part of the problem.  Was regulation the main problem?  It's possible.  I refuse to wade into this to figure it out, for fear of a brain bleed.  We aren't talking about blog research.....we are discussing a 10,000 page report.  So lacking the ability to counter your points, let me leave you with a couple things.  What we think, and what a guy named Kyle thinks:

We believe that any (de)regulation that allowed gigantism in banking and finance, free mergers, inter-state ownership, conglomeration, was mostly bad.
Any (de)regulation that loosened borrowing rules based on the assumption that good times never end was mostly bad.
Any (de)regulation which stripped the information about a loan on the way to packaging and selling them in bunches was completely bad.
Any (de)regulation which allowed mortgage brokers, or banks to prey on the poor without risk was bad.
Any (de)regulation that allowed banks to "red line" neighborhoods, or treat borrowers differently based on their race, sex, or religion, is bad.
I got more, but this is enough.

I found this interesting webpage which seems to provide a reasonable answer, as well as supporting what I have read elsewhere.

Congress's CRA Caused the Crash?

Do Nothing my friend

Advisor, we are in agreement about much here. This is a complex issue. By no means will I pretend to understand what was happening with these Derivatives. There is certainly much more in play than what was included in my blog post. My point is that much of what has occured can be attributed to a "robust public response". This response is made by career politicians who can not see beyond the next election. Most often the policies enacted are not thought through with regard to the repercussions. I wonder how many politicians touted home ownership statistics before the bust? Look at the various stock market crashes. Was there a more "robust public response" than in 1929? I believe it took 25 years for the stock market to recover. Most research of late agree that FDR's incessant experimentation only prolonged the depression by generating more uncertainty (I even think I recall one coming from Berkely!). Consumers, employers and investors held on to their money because they had no idea what the government was going to do next. In 1987 the market crashed as well. Nearly by the same percentage. I believe 87 was a little worse actually. President Reagan allowed the economy to recover on it's own. I believe the market regained its value in about 2 years, maybe less. We had great economic success in the years following. Jimmy Carter is another one who should despise the "robust public response". You could make the case that Nixon's price controls on oil that ruined his chances of re-election. People associate Carter with the gas lines, but it was Nixon's price controls that made it happen. Carter just didn't have the guts to repeal oil price controls because they were popular. When things get bad the public and the press will often demand to "do something!", I believe it takes real leadership to resist this. Often it is best to do nothing. To quote Havard Professor Mankiw: "The question on the minds of many in Congress and in the White House is this: What should they be doing right now to keep the economy on track? The right answer: absolutely nothing." Policticins ignore this advice because you often don't get credit for doing nothing. Maybe Bermuda Bob should add that to his platform. It will secure my vote.   

Robust public response

The issue with the "Robust public response" was never the fact that it went too far,  the critisism was that the response took far too long to happen and by the time the government moved, it was too late. Hardly the case this time 'round.

Comments on Mookie's "Do Nothing My Friend"

1)      There was no public response to the Great Depression in 1929. FDR became president 40 months after the crash of 1929.  By that time, the Dow had fallen 84%.

Which of FDR’s responses do you find so appalling?

  • Social Security
  • Emergency Banking Act: To close, clean up and reopen the banks which are healthy
  • Glass Stegall Act and the FDIC
  • Securities and Exchange Commission
  • WPA, CCC and a myriad of other programs to put the unemployed to work building dams and bridges and sidewalks, and putting out forest fires
  • TVA to develop dams and bring electricity and development to America’s great unwashed and toothless
  • Rural Electrification Act to bring electricity, and progress to the farmers.
  • and much much more.

I can’t imagine that you are aware of the dust bowl and the exodus to the west, the 25% unemployment, the bank panics, the insider trading and Wall Street Corruption, the union busting, and the wild popularity of communism. I can’t imagine you are aware that much of the concrete foundation of America was poured then, literally and figuratively. 
25 years for the stock market to recover?  Meaning while all these programs helped employ, and feed, and secure the bottom 95% of the country, the rich lived lives of quiet desperation.

2)  I think that you make an enormous error in equating the stock market with the economy. They are related, but they are certainly not equal, as the current 10,000 point Dow proves. The Dow is at 10,000 because the economy is tanking: US$ is crashing, and companies have slashed capacity, employment, and costs.

3)  Your Mankiw quote was given in 2007. How does this relate to 2008? 
Do you realize that Mankiw is a big fan of economic intervention by the Federal Reserve, just not by Congress and the president?

I think you are on the wrong path Mookster

Comments on my comments

I'm standing by my belief on Hoover's response. True, Smoot - Hawley was in Congress at the time, but Hoover championed it after the crash. In May of 1930 1,028 economists signed an open letter urging him to veto the legislation. The letter was published in the NY Times. Several other warnings too. Hoover believed it was important. He could have vetoed it. Also, His meetings with industry leaders, railroads convincing them to hold or inflate wages most certainly had a negative economic impact. Many of these companies felt it was their patriotic duty to comply with the President, until they went out of business. This was a different era, this was plenty "robust". Hoover was a little more mindful of acting within the Constitution. To FDR, the Constitution was an obsticle overcome.

  • Social Security - ponzi scheme. Most evidence that I have read the last couple days points to the fact that the administration knew it would have problems down the road (their estimate was 1980). Initially they wanted this to be billed as an insurance policy but they did not think that it would pass the Constitution test so it just went through as a tax. I don't know what good I can say about this program. The rate of return sucks. There is no lock box (Al Gore). When it started benefits were paid at 65 and life expectency was 61 (that just makes it sound evil, doesn't it). I'm 36, I've paid a bunch into it and will probably never see any of it. I would opt out in a second. Show me where to sign.
  • I am not saying all FDR's responses were bad. The SEC, FDIC, reform of the Fed and he even undid some of the damage Smoot - Hawley. I agree that a lot of the infrastructure and the parks by the CCC we still enjoy today. The Verrazano Bridge. These are hard to argue with.
  • The TVA I'm torn. This was a large undertaking. Private industry was working at the time to light the south. The TVA snuffed out efforts by Commonwealth and Southern. This is certainly an area where the private sector could have brought back jobs.
  • Institutions like the NRA (not the gun people) really did damage.Super strict stringent rules that terrified business. In 1934 10,000 pages of law was created. This was more paper than the entire legislative output of the Federal Government since 1789 according to the American Bar Association. There were many political cartoons done during this period showing the business man and the Wall Streeter as terrified of the president. When this is the case, business waits it out. Holds onto their money and capital.

Rosevelt's answer to the waiting it out business was to raise taxes. He introduced the undistributed profits tax in 1936. In 1937 and 38 there was a Depression within the Depression. Instead of giving this man credit for getting us out of the Depression one should ask why in the hell did the Depression last until 1940?

Hoovers "Robust Public Response"

Advisor, please. No public response until FDR? You must be kidding. FDR's activisim was more of an extention of Hoover's. Hoover met with industry leaders directly after the crash and cut a deal with them to maintain or increase wages. Higher cost of employment = less employment (you may also notice everytime we increase minimum wage the unemployment rate of our youth goes up, it's like 50% right now). This was no doubt a main cause of the rapid increase in unemployment. This combined with the disaster that was the Smoot Hawley tariff act in 1930. This protectionist move caused retaliation around the globe. Some have even pointed to Smoot Hawley as the factor that took us from recession to depression. Certainly both of these "robust public responses" together were disastrous for the economy at the time. There was more too. Hoover responded like no one at the time had ever seen. I metioned FDR because his continued meddling extended the depresion. I'll respond to your other points when I have more time.

Hooverism

A quick perusal says not much regulatory response by Hoover.  He mostly pushed voluntary efforts.
Smooth Hawley predates the depression, being approved by the house before the depression, but getting final passage after.  I do not see a robust response to the depression.  Something, just not much.

I want also to take this moment to thank the academy.  Little did we know when we started this 10 years ago, that we would be discussing Herbert Hoover in the pages of ApplianceAdvisor.com

Now THAT'S a Mouthful !!!

Agreed !!!  

Real Estate Brokers, Mortgage Brokers, Mortgage Providers, Banks, and Federal Regulators were ALL to blame because they made it oh-so-easy for less-then-informed people to succumb to natural tendencies toward greed !!!  

REAL ESTATE BROKERS found new ways to protect themselves from a stagnant real estate market, which is their source of income !!!  

MORTGAGE BROKERS provided the ways for REAL ESTATE BROKERS to sell more houses by artificially inflating the purchasing ability of buyers !!!  

MORTGAGE PROVIDERS loosened the documentation required to obtain a mortgage and/or came up with packages which required practically a signature and a smile to qualify for financing ... then created ARM's to guarantee they had a customer for life !!!  

BANKERS bought into the whole thing ... and further compounded everything by flooding the market with unsecured credit cards with high limits !!!  Then they justified their existence by declaring that they were ... "... too big to fail ..."  

 FEDERAL REGULATORS looked the other way and, as admitted by Chris Cox, missed things altogether !!!  

The ironies of ironies is that Geitner was one of those Federal Regulators !!!  

Finally, anyone and everyone who forgot that ... " ... if it's is too good to be true it probably is ..."   was/were not totally blameless !!!

Economics

You must google half the day advisors.Difficult to maintain your cover and then attempt to insult me. There are situations where support by the people(read government) have some validity. However the gross ,across the board mentality of spending billions and forget the price of the debt is called suicide economics brother. We clearly have a President , who is very much doing what someone has told him to do and could not be the CEO of a Dairy Queen himself.He will run the deficit to obscene numbers thinking we can spend our way out of trouble. Something akin to supply side economics and we will tell you what to buy.That worked huh ? Well the banks and Wall Street will get their bonus , we will get money to turn in an appliance. Good deal if you live in Siberia.I guess I just can't get away !!!!Economics, I have a  Masters , don't go there.This economic plan is silly and will get worse. Especially for our children , but then the government will be in place to take care of everyone......under 65.

A question of balance

As a person who hails north of the 49th parallel, I have always admired many things about your great country including the free market entrepenerial spirit that exists in the US. From my perspective, you seem to be a nation of extremes. You are either for freedom - Rep or a Commie- dem. 

Much of what caused your county's most recent anguish is a result of a free market system run amuck. Interest only mortgages to people that couldn't afford them to begin with. The AIG boondoggle, GM's demise and  several other "questionable business practices" that provided the grease for the proverbial slippery slope. Couple all of this with a lack of an adequate social safety net and it spells disaster.

Many of these problems could be averted with better checks and balances for the banking and insurance sector. our banks are rated #1 in the world, not because they are geniuses, but rather because the government has legislated these checks and balances. Our socal safety net is among the best in the world. Universal health care, a Social Security that will be around for my kids old age and a Government run liqour store that is the envy of all.........  

There certainly is something to be said for the Middle of the road as opposed to the left or right lane.  

Rising from the embers of a

Rising from the embers of a peaceful negotiation with the English, a democratic government, low crime, a small military large enough to project its ideals globally, a better health care system that provides for longer lifespans and no bankruptcies, superior primary education, great Chinese food, a miniscule murder rate, 1/3 the poverty rate, sanity in politics.
No drama, no surprises?  I really don't think this is what we are looking for down here.